What we're watching: the next 189 round and where the cut-off lands

This is analysis, not reporting. The Department of Home Affairs does not announce round dates or cut-offs in advance, so everything below is our estimate from the visible pattern.

Timing

With 189 rounds now quarterly and the last one on 13 November 2025, the next is due roughly three months later. Home Affairs has previously signalled a late-February to mid-March window. We are provisionally marking it as 1 March 2026 on the invitation rounds page, flagged as projected.

Size

The program-year skilled independent allocation supports rounds in the 8,000 to 10,000 range at this cadence. We expect something similar, weighted toward occupations the government has named as priorities: healthcare, construction, and education.

Cut-off

Here is where we are least certain. The November round invited trades near 65 and general professional occupations from around 80. If this round is a similar size, we would expect:

• Trades and priority health occupations: 65 to 75
• Engineering: 80 to 90
• ICT and accounting: 95 or higher

Confidence

Medium on timing, low on the exact cut-off. If you are sitting on a borderline score, the safer move is a state nomination Expression of Interest in parallel rather than betting on a single federal round.