What we're watching: pressure to overhaul the points test

This is analysis, not reporting. No changes to the points test have been legislated at the time of writing.

The background

The government's Migration Strategy described the current points test as not doing enough to select migrants likely to succeed in the labour market. A review was commissioned. Independent economists have argued for years that points for a partner's skills, for a Professional Year, and for study alone are weak predictors of outcomes, while points for a concrete job offer and higher earnings are strong ones.

What a redesign might reward

If the review's direction holds, we would expect a future points test to lean harder on:

• A genuine job offer or current skilled employment at a good salary
• Specialisation and demonstrated earnings potential
• English at the higher bands

and to reduce or remove points that are easy to accumulate without a labour-market signal.

Why we are not expecting it in this program year

Changing the points test needs legislative and regulatory change, consultation, and system build time in SkillSelect. That is a multi-year process. Our working assumption is no structural change before the 2027-28 program year at the earliest.

What to do with that

If you are close to invitation now, apply under the current rules. If you are two or more years away, do not over-invest in points categories (a Professional Year, for instance) that a redesign might devalue. Confidence: low on specifics, higher on the direction of travel.